About

General

Title
Modeling the fuel-energy balance of Kazakhstan (LEAP-KZ) to analyse decarbonisation scenarios and carbon pricing instruments
Overall information
  • Principal investigator (PI): N. K. Zhakiyev
  • Grant of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the RoK
  • Project duration: 08.2024-12.2026
Aims
  • Development of a comprehensive modeling tool for the fuel and energy balance of Kazakhstan (LEAP-KZ), formation of an action plan for decision-making on an energy transition and analysis of carbon pricing instruments with a holistic cross-sectoral vision for the development of a green economy and achieving carbon neutrality.
Tasks
  • Analysis of the fuel and energy balance
  • Development of the KZLEAP model
  • Modeling of development scenarios, quantitative and qualitative analytics
Research methods
Energy system models are used to analyse long-term policies and pathways to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is necessary to create 'net zero' or 'net-negative emissions' energy systems that decarbonize the entire economy, covering energy supply and demand, as well as other sources of emissions, including industrial processes, agriculture, and land use. A subset of these models are engineering-economic models that minimize the costs of achieving exogenously given annual reductions in GHG emissions to limit the increase in average global temperature. Their results, called deep decarbonization models (DDMs), include levels and timing of energy investment that meet projections of future energy demand across all energy sectors over several decades.
Research tools
LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) is an integrated modeling tool that can be used to track energy consumption, production and resource extraction across all economic sectors over medium to long term forecast periods. It can also be used to account for sources and sinks of greenhouse gas emissions from both the energy and non-energy sectors, as well as emissions of local and regional air pollutants.
Expected results
Tasks (WP- work packages):
  • WP1. Analysis of fuel and energy balance
  • WP 2. Development of the KZLEAP model
  • WP 3: Development scenario modeling, quantitative and qualitative analytics
Expected results:
  • Data analytics, building forecast models, correlation analysis, comparison of indicators with other countries, dependency graphs, repository architecture. Collected data (datasets in monthly and seasonal resolution) included in the fuel and energy balance and collection of emissions data. Data processing in the SQL, Python, MS Excel, Wolfram Mathematica software environment.
  • Simulation and simulation of various scenarios: Design and build an open, transparent and integrated modeling platform to assess low-carbon transition pathways for Kazakhstan's energy system in LEAP. Training in the field of modeling in LEAP and the formation of human capital of experts. Improving the qualifications of scientific staff in improving the KZLEAP model (participation in seminars, reporting at conferences, improving scientific methods, training undergraduates). Quantitative exploration of scenarios for medium- and long-term decarbonization pathways. Improving the qualifications of government employees to use the KZLEAP model and involving them in scientific research.
  • Building scenario analyzes using the LEAP model for energy planning and climate change mitigation assessment. Exploring the potential of CA to develop carbon market pricing instruments to accelerate regional decarbonization and realize the benefits of sustainable energy cooperation in the region.

Details

Kazakhstan's energy sector and economy as a whole are dependent on fossil fuels, with coal being the backbone of Kazakhstan's electricity sector, accounting for 67% of the country's electricity production and CO₂ emissions. The transition from fossil fuels to clean energy solutions for Kazakhstan is now high on the national strategy agenda. This requires a transformation of energy policy and a revision of traditional industrial development strategies, the introduction of innovative technologies and the application of “rapid decarbonization” measures. Energy modeling of development scenarios has an important role in shaping policy and investment decisions.

Kazakhstan is a leading producer and exporter of fossil energy: the 9th largest exporter of coal, the 9th largest exporter of crude oil, and the 12th largest producer of natural gas [1,2]. The economy of Kazakhstan is largely dependent on energy production mainly from fossil fuels, energy-intensive industry and natural resource processing. Kazakhstan, a leading exporter of hydrocarbons, is currently faced with the need to decarbonize economic sectors and transition to a new energy paradigm based on the climate agenda. The transition from fossil fuels to clean energy solutions is now prominent in national strategic documents [3,4].

A key factor in conducting this study are the environmental, economic and energy aspects of decarbonization of the national economy: (i) The Kazakhstan 2050 Strategy includes long-term goals to increase the share of alternative energy in electricity production (renewable and nuclear) to 50% by 2050; (ii) The strategy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is a trigger to attract significant investment in alternative energy sources. The country's regions have great potential for renewable energy: solar, wind, bio, hydro and geothermal energy; (iii) By leveraging the region's diverse energy sources and production mix, the pilot market will pave the way for accelerated regional decarbonization and realize the benefits of sustainable energy cooperation in CA. These benefits include lower investment costs for new generation capacity, increased development of renewable energy sources, and improved operation and management of regional energy resources.

To transition to a renewable energy system, the following three steps are necessary. First, modernize and further develop networks capable of integrating a high share of renewable energy. Second, increasing the flexibility of the energy system through demand management, energy storage systems, hydropower capacity and other technologies. Third, a clear plan for phasing out coal, including support for structural changes in coal regions. Interest in renewable energy production is growing throughout the region, motivated by current energy needs and the implementation of long-term CC mitigation strategies. The global push for clean technologies demonstrates that the energy crisis is certainly not a setback for the climate, but rather is accelerating the energy transition. In fact, the IEA's WEO 2022 report leads us to the conclusion that the famous energy trilemma can be solved with clean energy, providing solutions for energy security, economic competitiveness and sustainability.

LEAP is an integrated scenario-based modeling tool that can be used to track energy consumption, production and resource extraction across all sectors of the economy. It can be used to account for sources and sinks of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in both the energy and non-energy sectors. In addition to tracking GHG emissions, LEAP can also be used to analyze emissions of local and regional air pollutants, as well as short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), making it well suited for studying the climate co-benefits of local air pollution reductions. The study will integrate DDPP, a collaborative initiative that aims to physically and economically demonstrate how countries can transform their energy systems to achieve deep decarbonization in line with national development priorities. This transition is represented by the deep decarbonization (DDM) pathways of individual countries. A key advantage of the approach is that country DDPs are prepared by in-country teams with local knowledge independent of government, with careful consideration of the national political, economic, technological, and geographic context.

Attachments

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Meet the team

Partners

Partner 2

Zhasyl Damu

Partner 2

KADE

Partner 3

KEGOC

Partner 4

Edinburgh University

Partner 4

Gazi University