Kazakhstan's energy sector and economy as a whole are dependent on fossil fuels, with coal being the backbone of Kazakhstan's electricity sector, accounting for 67% of the country's electricity production and CO₂ emissions. The transition from fossil fuels to clean energy solutions for Kazakhstan is now high on the national strategy agenda. This requires a transformation of energy policy and a revision of traditional industrial development strategies, the introduction of innovative technologies and the application of “rapid decarbonization” measures. Energy modeling of development scenarios has an important role in shaping policy and investment decisions.
Kazakhstan is a leading producer and exporter of fossil energy: the 9th largest exporter of coal, the 9th largest exporter of crude oil, and the 12th largest producer of natural gas [1,2]. The economy of Kazakhstan is largely dependent on energy production mainly from fossil fuels, energy-intensive industry and natural resource processing. Kazakhstan, a leading exporter of hydrocarbons, is currently faced with the need to decarbonize economic sectors and transition to a new energy paradigm based on the climate agenda. The transition from fossil fuels to clean energy solutions is now prominent in national strategic documents [3,4].
A key factor in conducting this study are the environmental, economic and energy aspects of decarbonization of the national economy: (i) The Kazakhstan 2050 Strategy includes long-term goals to increase the share of alternative energy in electricity production (renewable and nuclear) to 50% by 2050; (ii) The strategy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is a trigger to attract significant investment in alternative energy sources. The country's regions have great potential for renewable energy: solar, wind, bio, hydro and geothermal energy; (iii) By leveraging the region's diverse energy sources and production mix, the pilot market will pave the way for accelerated regional decarbonization and realize the benefits of sustainable energy cooperation in CA. These benefits include lower investment costs for new generation capacity, increased development of renewable energy sources, and improved operation and management of regional energy resources.
To transition to a renewable energy system, the following three steps are necessary. First, modernize and further develop networks capable of integrating a high share of renewable energy. Second, increasing the flexibility of the energy system through demand management, energy storage systems, hydropower capacity and other technologies. Third, a clear plan for phasing out coal, including support for structural changes in coal regions. Interest in renewable energy production is growing throughout the region, motivated by current energy needs and the implementation of long-term CC mitigation strategies. The global push for clean technologies demonstrates that the energy crisis is certainly not a setback for the climate, but rather is accelerating the energy transition. In fact, the IEA's WEO 2022 report leads us to the conclusion that the famous energy trilemma can be solved with clean energy, providing solutions for energy security, economic competitiveness and sustainability.
LEAP is an integrated scenario-based modeling tool that can be used to track energy consumption, production and resource extraction across all sectors of the economy. It can be used to account for sources and sinks of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in both the energy and non-energy sectors. In addition to tracking GHG emissions, LEAP can also be used to analyze emissions of local and regional air pollutants, as well as short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), making it well suited for studying the climate co-benefits of local air pollution reductions. The study will integrate DDPP, a collaborative initiative that aims to physically and economically demonstrate how countries can transform their energy systems to achieve deep decarbonization in line with national development priorities. This transition is represented by the deep decarbonization (DDM) pathways of individual countries. A key advantage of the approach is that country DDPs are prepared by in-country teams with local knowledge independent of government, with careful consideration of the national political, economic, technological, and geographic context.
PI, PhD in Physics. Head of the Department of Science and Innovation
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Senior Researcher, PhD in Science, Engineering and Technology (Nazarbayev University)
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Researcher, MSc in Electrical & Computer Engineering. Senior-lecturer, Astana IT University
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Research Assistant, PhD in Chemical Engineering (Nazarbayev University)
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Junior Researcher, MSc in Electrical and Computer Engineering, Senior-lecturer, Astana IT University
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